2025 was a year of stratification rather than recovery. According to MSCI's Carbon Markets year-end review, the primary global carbon-credit market value held at approximately USD 1.4 billion for the fourth consecutive year, while global retirements rose ~3% year-on-year to match the 2021 record [1]. Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace 2025 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market reached a directionally consistent conclusion: demand holding steady while turnover stabilises and quality differentiation deepens [2][3].
The stratification story
Beneath the headline stability, three structural shifts stand out:
Tier divergence. Average prices for credits associated with CCP-Approved methodologies and high-rated ratings agency tiers have risen, while non-Core, pre-2016 nature-based vintages continue to trade at a steep discount. The market is effectively running two parallel price discovery processes.
Engineered removals premium. Direct air capture (DAC), biochar, and enhanced rock weathering credits cleared at multiples of nature-based prices through 2025, with multi-year offtake deals from Microsoft, Frontier, and Stripe continuing to anchor demand at the high end. MSCI's Investment and Offtake Trends report (April 2026) details the offtake-pipeline composition [4].
Article 6 transfers register in data. Q3 2025 was the first quarter in which Article 6.2 ITMO transfers materially appeared in market data streams [5]. Volumes remain modest in absolute terms — Ghana's first transfer to Switzerland was 11,733 tCO₂e — but the trajectory is now visible, and Switzerland, Sweden, Japan, Korea, and Singapore are all building offtake pipelines.
What this implies for buyers
The cost of a credible portfolio strategy has risen, but so has its strategic value. Spot-and-pray purchasing of unrated vintages is no longer a viable hedge against future claims scrutiny; corporate climate disclosures under CSRD, SEC, and ISSB now expose buyers to questions about vintage, methodology version, and CCP-status that did not exist three years ago.
What it implies for project developers
The economics of new project development are increasingly tilted toward methodologies on the CCP-Approved pathway and toward jurisdictional or Article 6.2-aligned structures. Stand-alone projects on legacy methodologies face a tighter market and a longer path to off-take.
Where CAS fits in
CAS provides independent technical advisory to buyers, developers, and host countries navigating this stratified market: (a) due-diligence packs and methodology-tier scoring for portfolio buyers; (b) project structuring against the CCP-Approved pathway for developers; and (c) Article 6.2 readiness assessments for host-country DNAs and project pipelines. We do not market or trade credits.
Sources
[1] MSCI, 'Carbon Credits Come of Age in 2025', January 2026.
[2] Ecosystem Marketplace, '2025 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market'.
[3] Forest Trends, 'Benchmark Report Finds the Voluntary Carbon Market in Transition', May 2025.
[4] MSCI, 'Investment and Offtake Trends in the Global Carbon Credit Market', April 2026.
[5] MSCI, '3Q 2025 Global Carbon Credit Market in Review', October 2025.